Survive And Thrive

10 January 2009

It could be the worst of times for the unlucky, or the best of times for the fortunate, writes Jim Bright.

The workplace experiences of 2009 are likely to vary dramatically for individuals, depending on whether they are in or out of the workforce. The employment rate is about 95.5 per cent but economists predict it will fall by a couple of percentage points over the year. Given the horror stories we heard last year, that doesn't sound too bad, does it?

However, that 2 per cent increase means more people will lose their jobs this year than live in the whole of the Northern Territory or all of Hobart. It is about the same number of people who live in Wollongong. And while we heard lots last year about all those corrupt types in Wollongong who thoroughly deserve to lose their jobs, it would be a bit harsh for the remaining vast majority of good, upstanding people in that city.

If the economists are correct, the official unemployment rate would rise to 6.4 per cent of the workforce, which means about 768,000 people would be out of work. This is like closing down Hobart, Canberra and Darwin. Everything and everyone, including the retired and children.

And this is just an economic prediction. Given the wholesale failure of anyone to accurately predict last year's events, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the figure could be higher. Another couple of percentage points would equate to just about the whole of the South Australian workforce out of a job.

One possible reaction to this might be a temptation to turn to crime. But the predicted increase in unemployment represents about 10 times the number of people currently in jail in Australia. If you want to get some idea of how overcrowded the jails would become, try commuting to work courtesy of CityRail.

Of course these figures tend to miss the impact of underemployment or the impacts on the self-underemployed and those who may depend upon them. The potential economic hardships are fairly obvious but it also can have a range of psychological impacts. Some are predictable, such as stress, depression, relationship difficulties and anxiety. Others are less obvious. For instance, the erosion of confidence in perceived job security for those still employed may lead to more conservative career development strategies such as staying put, taking on extra duties for no extra pay or not seeking promotion.

People who have lost their jobs or are close to people who have may well have a very tense and difficult 2009.

However, for those who are convinced their jobs are safe, 2009 will be a very different affair. For many people in this situation, the year provides possibly unprecedented opportunities to establish a sound career reputation or, for others, to seek rapid promotion.

Organisations that have downsized still need people to do the work and those that have restructured need people to succeed in the new structures.

You may well find yourself with fewer colleagues to compete with, or fewer managers to wait in line behind and perhaps a broader set of responsibilities providing more opportunities.

New entrants into the workforce may find their paths to bigger roles less encumbered than they have been for any predecessors for the last decade. It could be a once in a lifetime opportunity for rapid promotion.

This two-speed work environ-ment calls for different strategies to survive and thrive in 2009 and in the coming weeks I will try to address strategies for both those in work and those who want it.

Jim Bright is a professor of career education and development at ACU National and a partner at Bright and Associates, a career management consultancy. Email ladder@brightandassociates .com.au.


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